Montana voters will play a crucial role in deciding the highly contested U.S. Senate race in the November 5 general election. Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is facing a tough reelection bid against Republican Tim Sheehy, with control of the closely divided Senate potentially hanging in the balance. Tester has spent $71 million on his campaign, compared to $11 million for Sheehy, with outside groups also contributing millions to the race.
In addition to the Senate race, Montana voters will also decide on a high-profile ballot question on abortion, as well as less competitive races for president and governor. President Trump won Montana with 57 percent of the vote in 2016 and 2020, making it a tough state for Democrats to win. The last Democrat to carry Montana in a presidential election was Bill Clinton in 1992.
In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte is facing Democrat Ryan Busse. Notably, Montana isn’t one of the states that conducts its elections predominantly by mail, but many residents choose to vote that way. In the 2020 U.S. Senate race, about 76 percent of the vote had been tabulated by 2 a.m. ET and 89 percent by 6 a.m. ET. Recounts are automatic in Montana if the vote is tied, and the AP will declare a winner only when the trailing candidates have no chance of closing the gap.
With a turnout of 80 percent of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election, Montana is expected to have a significant impact on the outcome of key races in the 2024 election.
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