The 151st Kentucky Derby presents a challenging puzzle following last year’s thrilling three-way finish. The standout favorite, Journalism, shines with a top Beyer speed rating of 108, achieved in small fields. However, he will face a much more crowded race with 19 competitors, raising concerns about how he will handle heavier traffic.
This year’s race features a plethora of early speed horses, including Citizen Bull, Neoequos, and American Promise. This abundance of speed may lead to a “pace meltdown,” potentially allowing late closers like Sandman and Sovereignty to capitalize and steal the race at long odds.
Bob Baffert, the famed trainer returning after a three-year ban, has an entry in the race, Citizen Bull, who also has speed but faces challenges from the No. 1 post position. Baffert’s reputation for finding success under tough conditions means overlooking his horses could be a mistake.
With Rodriguez’s last-minute scratching, Baeza has entered the field from the outside and is a formidable contender, having come close to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby with a respectable speed rating.
The race also features two Japanese entries, Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe, the latter being a mystery due to his lack of exposure to U.S. competitors, yet specs suggest impressive form in Japan.
One of the most heartwarming stories involves Lonnie Briley and his horse, Coal Battle, who has had an astonishing four-win streak, culminating in a Kentucky Derby entry, shattering expectations for a trainer known for conditioning cheaper horses. Though Coal Battle’s odds are long, his journey to the Derby captures the spirit of this prestigious event.
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